What have we learned from this crisis?

In an interesting interview in May by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to Bloomberg, the question is this strong showing what have we learned from this crisis? :

“Absolutely nothing”

Emphasizing that the real problem of the economy and global finance is the DEBT , that governments do not want to realize and continue implementing policies that only aggravate the situation and postpone the solution.

Its recommendations to investors is to stay away from long – term bonds USA, currencies €, $ with similar evils and equity market, which should only be taken as a hobby. Haven assets he advised against inflation which provides, are metals (diversified basket) and agricultural land.

The words of Nassim Nicholas Taleb should not go unnoticed to anyone under that on your resume consists predicting the financial crisis as author of the book “Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” , published in 2007 ( “The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable ” ; Paidós Ed.). In this work Taleb developed the theory of Black Swan ( Black Swan) To explain the role of enormous impact, difficult to predict exceptional events beyond normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology.

The idea is not to try to anticipate these exceptional events, but to build systems robust enough to those who are negative and be able to build on the positive. Banks and investment firms are very vulnerable to events “Black Swan” and are exposed to much higher than expected losses in their defective models.

Taleb suggests a recipe with 10 principles for building robust systems made “Black Swan” Negative:

  1. How fragile should fall soon as he is small. Nothing should become “too big to fail”.
  2. Not socialize losses and privatize profits.
  3. Who drives a school bus blind (and crash) should never again take a bus.
  4. No incentive to allow who operate a nuclear power plant or financial risks of third bonds.
  5. Balance complexity and simplicity.
  6. No dynamite charges to children, even when a hazard warning.
  7. Only “Ponzi schemes” or pyramid is based on trust. Governments should never “restore confidence”.
  8. Not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal.
  9. Citizens should not depend on assets or financial experts to have guaranteed pensions.
  10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs.

Two years after being immersed in this crisis does not feel we have come a long way to resolve it and the situation of precariousness and uncertainty about the future persist. Politicians are reluctant to leave their armchairs and their nostrums only aggravate the situation.

As a finishing touch I invite the reader, now that the holidays come to an end, a self – reflection of the wise words of Albert Einstein about the crisis:

“I do not pretend that things will change if we keep doing the same. The crisis is the best blessing that can happen to people and countries because the crisis brings progress. Creativity is born of anxiety as the day comes from the dark night. It in the crisis born inventiveness, discoveries and great strategies. He who overcomes crisis surpasses himself without being “overcome”.

Who blames the crisis its failures and neglects his own talent and respects more problems than solutions. The real crisis is the crisis of incompetence. The inconvenience of people and countries is laziness to find the exits and solutions. There is no crisis challenges without challenges life is a routine, a slow agony. Without crisis there are no merits. It is in the crisis where the best of each, because without crisis, any wind caress. Talk of crisis is to promote and silent in the crisis is to exalt conformism. Instead we work hard. We get it over with menacing crisis that represents the tragedy of not being willing to overcome. “

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